Gold: Recently, U.S. President Trump announced that both Israel and Hamas have signed the first-phase agreement of the peace plan. Trump even stated that he might travel to the Middle East in the near future, and even consider visiting Gaza. The ceasefire in Gaza will ease geopolitical frictions in the short term.​   However, the risk-aversion sentiment has not cooled down significantly recently. On one hand, in the recent sixth round of voting, the U.S. Senate once again rejected the bipartisan funding bill, and the U.S. government remains in a shutdown. On the other hand, there are no signs of significant de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict recently, indicating that risk-aversion sentiment is difficult to subside.​   Chen Yu, Senior Gold Analyst at Zhisheng Research(exclusively invited by Plotio), believes that the recently released minutes of the Federal Reserve's meeting show that there are differences among Fed officials regarding subsequent interest rate cuts. The market's expectation of a substantial interest rate cut by the Fed may be discounted. Although the gold bull market remains intact in the medium and long term, investors need to be alert to the risk of a short-term gold price correction.​   Technical Analysis: On the weekly chart, the market rose strongly last week and closed with a positive candle, indicating a strong market trend. On the daily chart, the market surged sharply in the previous trading day and closed with a large positive candle, suggesting that there is still a chance for gold prices to rise in the short term. On the 4-hour chart, the market is moving higher along the 20-day moving average; in the short term, focus on the market's correction to test the support level around the $4,017 mark.​   Crude Oil: First, recently, the United States, Israel, and Hamas have all released signals indicating that the war in Gaza has ended. This will ease the risk of crude oil supply disruptions in the short term, which is not conducive to the rise of crude oil prices in the short run.​   Second, oil-producing countries are likely to maintain high output. Previously, OPEC+ maintained a policy of slight production increase at its October meeting. Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that Russia will gradually increase oil production, indicating that the crude oil supply side is likely to remain at a relatively high level.​   Finally, from the perspective of demand, the U.S. government remains in a shutdown. Although the release of some economic data has been postponed, the market is relatively pessimistic about the U.S. economic outlook, which will not be conducive to the improvement of crude oil demand.​   Technical Analysis: The market pulled back from high levels last week and closed with a negative candle, indicating that crude oil prices are relatively weak in the short term. From the indicator perspective, the market is trading below the 20-day and 62-day moving averages, with bears taking the upper hand.4-Hour Chart: The market is pulling back to test the 20-day moving average. If it stabilizes above this level, there will be a chance for further rebound in crude oil prices; otherwise, crude oil prices face the risk of further decline. Intraday, focus on the resistance level around $64 and the support level around $61.   U.S. Dollar: In the latest dot plot released by the Federal Reserve, among 19 Fed officials, 10 believe that there will be 2 or more interest rate cuts this year; the other 9 officials believe that the Fed only needs to cut interest rates once or no longer cut interest rates this year. The dot plot shows that there are differences among Fed officials regarding the future interest rate cut path, which is conducive to the U.S. dollar maintaining its strength.​   However, the market is relatively optimistic about the expectation of two interest rate cuts by the Fed in the remaining months of this year. According to the "Fed Watch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 5.9%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut is 94.6%; the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in December is 0.9%, the cumulative probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut is 19%, and the cumulative probability of a 50-basis-point interest rate cut is 80.1%. Under the background of relatively optimistic interest rate cut expectations, the U.S. dollar index may remain weak.​   Technical Analysis: On the daily chart, the market continued to rise in the previous trading day and closed with a positive candle, indicating that the U.S. dollar index has been relatively strong recently. From the indicator perspective, the 20-day and 62-day moving averages are expected to form a golden cross, and there is a chance for the U.S. dollar to rise further in the future. In the short term, focus on the market's correction to test the support level around 98.72.   Nikkei 225: On the daily chart, the market has maintained strength recently and has been consolidating at a high level for consecutive trading days. From the indicator perspective, the market is operating above the 20-day moving average, with bulls being relatively strong. However, the divergence rate is relatively high, so investors need to be alert to the risk of a market correction. On the 1-hour chart, the 20-day and 62-day moving averages have formed a golden cross, and there is a high chance of further upward movement in the future. In the short term, focus on the market's correction to test the support level around 48,183.     Copper: On the weekly chart, the market rose and closed with positive candles for two consecutive weeks previously, indicating that bulls have dominated the market recently. On the daily chart, the moving average system has formed a golden cross, with bulls being relatively strong. From the perspective of form, the market is fluctuating upward and is likely to remain strong in the short term. Intraday focus on the market's correction to test the support level around the integer mark of $5.   9 October Market Snapshot: 1.The minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting show that there are serious divisions among officials. Only half of the officials believe that there will be two more interest rate cuts this year, and they cautiously suggest further interest rate cuts this year. 2.Trump announced that both Israel and Hamas have signed the first-phase agreement of our peace plan. Trump stated that after signing the peace agreement, he may visit the Middle East on the upcoming weekend. 3.Recently, in the sixth round of voting in the United States, the U.S. Senate once again rejected the bipartisan funding bill, and the federal government remains in a shutdown.   9 October Key Data/Events Preview: 1.20:30 (GMT+8): U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 30. 2.20:30 (GMT+8): Speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. 3.20:45 (GMT+8): Speech by Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman.   [Important Disclaimer:The above content and views are provided by Zhisheng, a third-party cooperative platform, for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors who trade based on this information shall bear their own risks.]In the event of any inconsistency between the English and Chinese versions, the Chinese version will prevail.This article is from Plotio. Please indicate the source when reprinting.

Gold: Data from the World Gold Council shows that global ETF inflows have reached $64 billion this year, with September alone setting a single-month record of $17.3 billion. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's September meeting indicate that most participants support further interest rate cuts. Investors expect another 25-basis-point cut at the interest rate meeting at the end of this month, while the probability of a rate cut in December has also risen to around 80%.   Owen, Senior Gold Analyst at Zhisheng Research(exclusively invited by Plotio), believes that factors such as global political and economic uncertainties, tense geopolitical situations, and the independence of the Federal Reserve have provided strong support for gold.   Technical Analysis:Gold is in a long-term uptrend on the monthly and weekly charts. On the 4-hour chart, gold prices are steadily rising along the 13-day moving average. On the 1-hour chart, after gold prices broke above the $4,000 mark in the short term yesterday (8 October), the upward momentum accelerated slightly, and the long position remains strong. Intraday, focus on the support level at $3,990 below.

Gold: After the U.S. government shutdown, the deadlock between the two parties persists. On Monday (6 October), Trump stated that he was willing to negotiate with the Democratic Party on healthcare subsidies to end the funding standoff. Shortly afterward, he reaffirmed that the prerequisite for negotiations was that the Democrats allow the government to reopen.   On Tuesday, Trump indicated that he would take advantage of the current shutdown to lay off thousands of federal employees. Meanwhile, regarding the salaries of employees during the shutdown, Trump said that backpaying salaries was a topic worth discussing, but "some people do not deserve to be taken care of." This further hardened the stance on the government shutdown.   At the same time, the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has drafted a memorandum stating that there is no legal guarantee that employees will receive compensation after the government shutdown ends. Democratic lawmakers quickly refuted this position, and the White House’s threat promptly triggered a more intense debate.   Mai Dong, Investment Strategist of Zhisheng Research  (exclusively invited by Plotio), believes that after the U.S. government shutdown, Trump’s actions—adding fuel to the fire—make it unlikely that the shutdown issue will be resolved in the short term, and risk-aversion sentiment will continue to rise.   Technical Analysis: The daily candlestick closed positive yesterday. At the 1-hour level, the market is in an upward trend and maintains a strong upward momentum. Today, focus on the support level of $4,000 below and the resistance level of $4,060 above.   Crude Oil: In the early hours of today, the American Petroleum Institute (API) released crude oil inventory data for the week ending October 3rd. The previous value showed a decrease of 3.674 million barrels per day, the expected value was an increase of 2.25 million barrels per day, and the actual announced value was an increase of 2.78 million barrels per day.   On the supply side, OPEC+ announced that it will further increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, consistent with the production increase in October. This is far lower than the previously market-expected 500,000 barrels per day. Due to the relatively small production increase, oil prices have received strong support at the $60 level.   Recently, the core contradictions in the crude oil market are not prominent, and oil prices will remain in a volatile range. The supply-side production increase is lower than market expectations, while on the demand side, crude oil inventories are rising and crude oil consumption is in a sluggish phase, maintaining a pattern of "weak supply and weak demand."   Technical Analysis: The daily candlestick closed negative yesterday. At the daily level, prices have returned to the range of $61.50 to $66.50. At the 1-hour level, the market has formed an upward trend. Today, focus on the support level of $61.90 below and the resistance level of $63.50 above.   U.S. Dollar: Regarding U.S. data, affected by the government shutdown, there have been relatively few important data releases from the U.S. recently. Currently, the market holds a pessimistic attitude toward the government’s reopening. Referring to Trump’s first term, when the government was shut down for approximately one month, the market expects the government may not reopen until the end of October.   On the European front, a new round of political unrest in France is roiling European financial markets, and investors concerns about the country’s fiscal stability have surged sharply. On 7th October , France’s government bond market suffered another severe sell-off, with the yield on France’s 10-year government bonds once breaking above 3.6%, approaching the high level seen during the 2011 European debt crisis.   Technical Analysis: The daily candlestick closed positive yesterday. At the daily level, the market has stabilized above the 98 mark. At the 1-hour level, the market maintains a strong upward trend. During the day, focus on the support level of 98.60 below and the resistance level of 99.10 above.   Nasdaq: The Nasdaq daily candlestick closed negative. At the daily level, the market came under significant pressure at the 25,000 mark yesterday and experienced a sharp pullback. At the 1-hour level, prices are on the verge of breaking below the upward trend line and are currently consolidating near the 120-day moving average, indicating a possible trend reversal in the market. Today, focus on the support level of 24,700 below and the resistance level of 24,950 above.   Copper: Copper daily candlestick closed positive. At the daily level, the market has stabilized above $5 and maintains an upward trend. At the 1-hour level, prices are trading above the 60-day/120-day moving averages. Today, focus on the support level of $4.96 below and the resistance level of $5.09 above.   8 October Market Snapshot: 1.Gold has broken through $4,030 perounce, setting new all-time highs consecutively. 2.French Defense Minister Le Maire announced his resignation from the government and submitted his resignation to Macron, who has accepted it. 3.Canada stated that U.S.-Canada trade negotiations have achieved success, with the agreement focusing on steel, aluminum, and energy.   8 October Key Data/Events Preview: 1.21:30 (GMT+8): Federal Reserve Governor Barr delivers a speech. 2.22:30 (GMT+8): U.S. EIA Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending October 3rd. 3.02:00 (GMT+8, next day): Federal Reserve releases monetary policy meeting minutes. 4.03:15 (GMT+8, next day): Federal Reserve’s Kashkari delivers a speech.   [Important Disclaimer:The above content and views are provided by Zhisheng, a third-party cooperative platform, for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors who trade based on this information shall bear their own risks.]In the event of any inconsistency between the English and Chinese versions, the Chinese version will prevail.This article is from Plotio. Please indicate the source when reprinting.